Monthly Archives: March 2016

Mini-Quiz #2

Continue reading Mini-Quiz #2

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Profit and Losses (P&Ls) in Real Terms

P&L IN REAL TERMS

You’d expect to have the P&L stated by US$ 100,000 of capital used.

 Noble profitability

Figure-4 Noble Group Profitability per $US 100,000 of capital

Figure 4 tells us that if Noble Group’s profit is too low / expansive in real terms.

In all fairness, Noble Group doesn’t make it and if is was a trade floor at a bank, they’d be cut out.

The commodity trading unit is at least two to three times less than the threshold that a JP Morgan or a Citigroup would set PER $100,000 for their proprietary capital.

Bankers, arguably the experts in risks, do not trade a very-low profitable book and lend money to the cash-addicted company instead of trading directly.

You would also expect to have the P&L PER US$ 100,000 of capital stated in relative terms:

cargill profit

Figure-5 Noble Group Profitability per $US 100,000 of capital vs Cargill

GHOST SHIPS

By all accounts, the physical oil or coal volume traded by Noble Group Ltd. would place them in the world’s largest charterers of ocean-going vessels.

energy-noble-group

Figure 2- Segments Results

Can the commodity trader seriously trade over 3 Million barrel equivalent per day ?

“Don’t kid yourself, with Noble you can easily cut the apple in 4 or 5 “.

 Legendary oil trader

energy fixtures noble group

Figure 3- Top Reported Dirty Spot Charterers for 2015

150 Millions metric tonnes of Oil liquids is a volume greater THAN the SUM of:

ST SHIPPINGShipping arm of Glencore.

CLEARLAKE, Shipping arm of Gunvor.

TRAFIGURA…

CSSA, Shipping arm of Total S.A

and the Shipping arm of BP all combined…