Monthly Archives: March 2017

Sinochem and Noble Group Americas Take-or-Pays.

Noble had two or three large and lucrative take-of-pay deals in the U.S but the wind has changed as it always does in the physical energy markets.

How the “core assets” (contracts) are now performing ?

Oil liquids had an EBIT of $646M in 2015, thanks specifically to three deals on Colonial, Magellan and Explorer pipelines. noblegroupreasearch.wordpress.com 2016/06/06

Noble has confirmed that it is losing money since  at least 8mth on the pipelines as we predicated earlier. noblegroupresearch.wordpress.com2016/11/21 

energy-noble-group-2

Noble Group Financial Performance Presentation FY16

Note the

“However, profitability was significantly impacts by working capital constraints as we managed for liquidity, inhibiting the business’ ability to enhance margins by monetizing the embedded optionality in the franchise”

The U.S oil liquids business has operated at a loss $23M during Q4-2016.

Now caught in-between, with losing positions the trader frames it as “it’s because of liquidity constraints” as it tries to sell this U.S oil liquids unit to Sinopec.

This is the also company who has burned $900 millions in OPERATING CASH-FLOWS in 2016 but printed an accounting profit… only figure.

The Noble Files 贵族档案

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Noble, from Speed boats to Hypersonic Missiles.

The Transit Time on Colonial Pipeline, if you go from one end to the other (Houston to New York) is about 16 days.

Most of ship voyages in Asia are less than 10 days but apparently this is too much for Noble Group.

seanergy-maritime-capesize
Are Conventional Ships now too slow for Noble Group Ltd  ?

At an average of 10 days shipment and at with a cost of the goods sold(COGS) of $48.58B FY16, the average inventory in transit recorded by Noble would have to be at least $1.256B , problem is that the audited number is only $2.6M FY16.

FY2015 the average transit time of Noble was 3.5 days.

FY2016 The average transit time of Noble, is now 0,019 days. It either implies that Noble has used hyper sonic missiles or that the corporation has a COGS inflated by 10 to 15 times in 2016.

If Noble, has always self-proclaimed itself as a corporation of +1000 employees working on busy trade floors, even more doubt their revenues.

Yet, none of the evidences suggest that this operation possesses the normal footprint associated to one of the largest commodity trader.

They have gone from cargoes put in the speed boats with the Elmans… to the Mach 5  speed with captain William Randall.

Noble Group inventory in-transit.png Audited Financial Statements 31 December 2016

The Noble Files 贵族档案