STAR ???? Hello Star

Noble’s Star Gasoline Trader Sinenko Said to Join Gunvor

Gunvor Group Ltd. has wooed Noble Group Ltd.’s star gasoline trader to join its expanding U.S. operations as an exodus from the struggling Asian trading house continues amid asset sales and a debt restructuring.

Dmitri Sinenko, one of Noble’s top performing oil traders, has agreed to join Gunvor’s U.S. operations… -Bloomberg

 

 

There is a few myths and misconceptions in the presser starting by STAR ??? Hello star.

On the cash-flows statement basis the U.S pipeline trade is absolutely what has killed any ray of hope for Noble of breakeven and paying back the borrowing base. https://noblegroupresearch.wordpress.com/?s=oil+liquids

 

The ‘Co-Stars’

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In our book, the co-stars Dmitri  https://noblegroupresearch.wordpress.com/tag/dmitri/ and Jeffrey “Chief Relaxation Officer ” VICE president and CO-CEO Frase, simply put, are synonym of two high rollers overheads.

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Noble Americas Oil Liquids was Noble’s last hope and they have bet everything on the same horse.

For the records they were given a blank card and what they did with it was roulette “double the stakes or quit” losing million dollars in negative cash flows per day depending on how you read how Noble torture its operating income from supply chain and  non-cash mark-to-market unrealised observable positions or its (bogus) physical turnover.

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If you want to know the real story of Noble Group, it is pretty simple:  in trading you can’t be just a second or a third, it cannot and won’t work.

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“Even with massive refineries shutdown of a historical proportion in the wake of Harvey flooding, Dmitri has not break-even, was losing Noble Americas Corp. half a million a day on his pipelines trades.”

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A 3rd or a 2nd won’t make it. It’s not enough. You need to get everything right and 10/10, or the market will grind you down to the ground. Don’t hire bums.

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the Noble Files 高贵组文件 研究

More people doubt the revenues of Noble Group.

Noble Group growth seems very artificial,  volume is at any cost in order to compel name recognition.

A great deal of criticism should be levelled at Noble Group for their lack of financial substance.

How can any trader in the world have an Inventory-in-transit of $2.6M for a  cost of goods sold of $48.524B ?

If we believed Noble, by its revenues, the Singapore-listed trader would be a trading giant second to Mercuria, (company with traceable flows and assets).

However the revenue per employee of Noble’s peers, only brings more questions about the veracity of Noble Group reported revenues and volume.

The revenues/employee of Mercuria and Gunvor put Noble Group in the   8–8.4B$  revenues fork.

At $101M per employee and the sales of Mercuria, Noble would have estimated $8B revenues.

At $4.9M per employee and the sales of Gunvor, Noble would be a $8.4B revenues company.

The audited inventory-in-transit, the level of RMI, and the peers analysis both place Noble as a company with implied revenues 11X to 12X less than the amount reported.

It is not clear how Noble can claim a turnover of nearly $100B per year with an unaudited physical traded volume of 182 million metric tons (2016) and 183 million metric tons (2015).

Noble is known very active in the financing market.

Yet no evidences have suggested that the physical operation of Noble  possesses any of the hallmarks normally associated to one of the largest commodity trader (chartering of ships and by tonnage)…

Noble Group has generated negative cash-flows from the operations to the tune of

-$900M in 2016,

-$600M in 2015

and

-$1600M in 2014.

Worse, the core of its booked net equity which is 102% of fair value gains/losses booked on assets.

How a company with no acceptable performance can still present a net positive equity of $3.92B ?

With $5B, Noble makes the top 4th position on the top 10 commodity borrowers list.

TXF data

Cautionary tale:   We need to know with some precision what Noble are actually using the money- for a “to-arrive net-equity” that the trader has  to continuously re-finance.

The struggled acquisition of Noble Agri by Cofco has shown how difficult it is to impose success to a company’s assets with a substantial booked value despite no acceptable performance and very few financial substance (if not any of it).

Noble is known as remarkably active in the financing market but less in the commodity market.

These anomalies only reinforce our belief that Noble is not even close to one-fifth of the $97 billion sales company it touts to be.

The Noble Files 贵族档案