Tag Archives: noble

2.2 Million barrel equivalent per day ? Deal of the decade or write-off ?


the franchise loses $1.25M per business day

Heh, I would steer clear as well.

Pilot Flying J

Why they would need pipelines.

They are not even traders….

It’s truck stops..

Yu sent the following messages at 9:39 PM

Yeah its puzzling

they are just a supply and dist

It’s trucks stop dudes.

why they would want to maintain a 1B$ credit facility… and inventory. There is no money in moving diesel above the rack in the U.S since at least 2 years.

Noble loses money I think 2 or 3 million per business days in recent quarters. stay clear.

Yu sent the following messages at 9:40 PM

Did they do any arb plays to Latam or UK?

 9:39 PM

very few

no tankers data can certify this

no AIS data or shipbroker that we know

“Noble’s oil business traded as many as 2.2m barrels a day in 2017”

seems a lot exaggerated,

just my opinion

Yu sent the following messages at 9:52 PM

They making it sound as if their oil business is a silver lining.

Could’ve been derivatives overstated as well.

Truth is hard to find in the industry these days.

Maybe Noble Group’s Treasury head (Wildrik de Blank) that has quit the company on August 31th could tell.

How Noble can even claim or imply seriously trading over 2.2 Million barrels or equivalent per day ?!

And where are found these barrels ?

Noble had a mere inventory-in-transit of $2.6 million dollars at the end of 2016.

Like for its MTM commodity derivatives and contracts gains revisions, at so many occasions, Noble has marked down its sales book to catch-up with reality.






The negative significance of Noble (來寶集團) Mark-to-Markets Gains on Derivatives and Commodity Contracts

Noble Group at the dusk of an agonising death spiral.

The only reproach that one could do to Iceberg Research is that he didn’t communicate well enough his message so people understand the negative significance of this $3.4B MtM or on what Noble Group (來寶集團) underpins its financial substance: a skeleton.

What is MtM and how a $3.4B MtM would translate into coal hedges)…  

Noble group fraud mtm

noble group enron

Mark-to-market (M-t-M)

To mark-to-market is to calculate the value of a financial instrument (or portfolio of such instruments) at current market rates or prices of the underlying.


Example for illustrative purpose:

On 1 Jan 2017: Noble buys 2,000,000 MT for June 2019 delivery at $59/mt. It turns immediatly in the derivatives market and sells the equivalent of 2,000,000 MT of paper contracts. This is the Coal API2 Argus futures contracts.

This is the Coal API2 Argus Futures Contracts.



1 Jan 2017: Noble has a +MtM of 0 (Contract price is $59 and the Argus Futures is at $59)

1 Feb 2017: The Argus Coal API2 futures is at $64,25. The +MtM on the coal contract is +$10,5M

20 March 2017: The Argus API2 Futures dropped to $59,25/MT The +MtM on the coal contract is +$500K

1 May 2017: The Argus API2 settled at 62,55 and the +MtM on the coal contract is now +$7,1M

Noble Group MtM on Coal contract:

mtm coal noble group.png

At any given time, the 2,000,000 MT of Coal produces a MtM gains between $500K and $11.5 millions.


Capezize Ship

When Noble announced a first-quarter loss of $130m— it blamed largely on ill-judged coal trades—and it warned that it might not return to profitability until 2019.

Can you better put in context the warning that it might not return to profitability until…

These “Hedging losses” are rather because of a mismatch between the level of profits booked on these contracts and their underlying cash-flows.

In order to produce $3.4B of MtM gains, Noble would have to buy not 2,000,000 MT of coal , as in this example, but book nearly 958 million metric tonsthe equivalent of 6937 Capezize cargoes Richards Bay-Qingdao, China or 5 voyages per week for the next 13 years…

This represents a considerable tonnage even for the largest firms of the industry (Cargill, Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, Anglo American)  all put together and more than 1.21 year of world coal production*



the Noble Files 高贵组文件 研究

**According to BP statistical review of word energy 2016, the world coal production was 786.1 million tonnes (2015)…

Won’t Pay the Benefits ?

It is well-known in the industry that staff movements are frequent (each 3 months) and lateral moves are common at Noble Group Ltd. The company is characterized by its high HR turnover.

noblegroupresearch.wordpress.com has learnt that at least 20% of the Houston Office trade floor were sacked on Monday March 14.


Continue reading Won’t Pay the Benefits ?